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Risk Factor 7

Updated: Nov 5, 2023

Risk Factor 7. Enabling circumstances or preparatory action: Events or measures, whether gradual or sudden, provide an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, or which suggest a trajectory towards their perpetration.

Indicators

7.1 Imposition of emergency laws or extraordinary security measures that erode fundamental rights.

7.2 Suspension of or interference with vital State institutions, or measures that result in changes in their composition or balance of power, particularly if this results in the exclusion or lack of representation of protected groups.

7.3 Strengthening of the security apparatus, its reorganization or mobilization against protected groups, populations, or individuals.

7.4 Acquisition of large quantities of arms and ammunition or of other objects that could be used to inflict harm.

7.5 Creation of, or increased support to, militia or paramilitary groups.

7.6 Imposition of strict control on the use of communication channels, or banning access to them.

7.7 Expulsion or refusal to allow the presence of NGOs, international organizations, media, or other relevant actors, or imposition of severe restrictions on their services and movements.

7.8 Increased violations of the right to life, physical integrity, liberty or security of members of protected groups, populations, or individuals, or recent adoption of measures or legislation that affect or deliberately discriminate against them.

7.9 Increased serious acts of violence against women and children, or creation of conditions that facilitate acts of sexual violence against those groups, including as a tool of terror.

7.10 Imposition of life-threatening living conditions or the deportation, seizure, collection, segregation, evacuation, or forced displacement or transfer of protected groups, populations, or individuals to camps, rural areas, ghettos, or other assigned locations.

7.11 Destruction or plundering of essential goods or installations for protected groups, populations or individuals, or property related to cultural and religious identity.

7.12 Marking of people or their property based on affiliation to a group.

7.13 The increased politicization of identity, past events, or motives to engage in violence.

7.14 Increased inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns, or hate speech targeting protected groups, populations, or individuals.

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